This project develops a probabilistic resilience assessment framework for distribution and microgrid systems under hurricane-induced disruptions.

▣ Problem

  • Extreme weather events cause widespread outages
  • Need quantitative metrics for expected resilience and restoration feasibility
  • Load and PV generation uncertainty must be included

▣ Approach

  • Define a time-dependent expected resilience metric
  • Use Point Estimate Method (PEM) to propagate uncertainty
  • Compare results against Monte Carlo simulation
  • Apply graph-theoretic restoration feasibility analysis

▣ Validation

  • IEEE 37-node distribution system
  • Comparison of conventional vs. active distribution systems
  • Strong agreement with Monte Carlo, with far lower compute cost

▣ Publication

IEEE MELECON (2018):
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/8379107